Instead of working, I make math
May. 3rd, 2012 04:16 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dagas_isaBeen thinking about Liar Game. (New chapter needs out, or I will start posting my meta)
Been thinking about the Akiyama-Nao team, and how Harimoto basically set up the initial rounds to try and break them. It (seems to have) failed. It's known how Nao saw what Akiyama was trying to do that allowed them to save that bond. But it's also true that Akiyama knew (or probably knew) that Nao didn't team up with Kimura and Mikamoto.
Akiyama would know absolutely for a fact that Harimoto's group didn't team up with Nao for the simple reason that their bidding didn't reflect cooperation with Nao, even though it would have been more profitable for them to have.
If you look at the hands again (just numbers, not suits, we have):
Saeki has: 10, 10, 2, 4, 7, Q
Nao has: 2, 8, 10, 4, 5, 5
Mikamoto has: A, A, 7, Q, 9, K
Kimura has 6, K, 10, 3, J, J
If Nao, Mikamoto, and Kimura were actually working together, they could have easily locked Saeki into last place.
As happened, Mikamoto changes out her Q and 9, allowing Kimura a 9, 10, J, Q, K straight, and giving Kimura first place.
Kimura can change out the 6 and the 3, giving Nao a 2-3-4-5-6 straight, and giving Nao second place.
Nao gets rid of her 5 and 8, which makes sure that Mikamoto doesn't become a "pig", doesn't risk improving Saeki's hand and serves as collateral for Harimoto's, especially if they also agree on setting a high price on each hand.
More so, cooperating this way, assuming they synchronize bids, is more profitable for Kimura and Mikamoto than faking cooperation.
The actual rehearsal game ended with Kimura at +21 and Mikamoto at +23. Kimura's total is actually lower than Mikamoto's despite winning first place because she paid coins out to build her hand, but didn't didn't bring any coins back in by changing out her cards.
However, assuming that Nao, Kimura, and Mikamoto were working together, they could fix bidding at one price (say 15 coins, which would negate any chance of a Saeki sabotage) and all break even on their exchange.
1st place: Kimura
30 coins - Starting amount
-1 coin - Initial hand
-15 coins - Bid on Mikamoto's Q, 9
+15 coins - From Nao's bid on 3, 6
+10 coins - First place prize
-10 coins - Amount returned
Total profit: 29 coins
2nd place: Nao
30 coins - Starting amount
-1 coin - Initial hand
-15 coins - Bid on Kimura's 3, 6
+15 coins - From Mikamoto's bid on 5, 8
+4 coins - Second place prize
-10 coins - Amount returned
Total profit: 23 coins
3rd place: Mikamoto
30 coins - Starting amount
-1 coin - Initial hand
-15 coins - Bid on Nao's 5, 8
+15 coins - From Kimura's bid on Q, 9
+1 coin - Third place prize
-10 coins - Amount returned
Total profit: 20 coins
So, in other words, it would be clear to anyone thinking things through (i.e. Akiyama) that actually teaming up with Nao would have been MORE beneficial to Harimoto's group from a pure money standpoint than merely pretending to team up with Nao, and Kimura putting her king up instead of the 3 and 6.
And more tellingly, even if Kimura and Mikamoto wanted the advantage of having Nao in last place and merely asked her not to bid on the King, Nao would have probably pointed out to them that they'd all benefit more from the second scenario than the first. Because she's helpful like that.
/finishes being late to the party
/finishes doing math instead of working
So anyway, leaving that there, just so I can be smug about it.
Been thinking about the Akiyama-Nao team, and how Harimoto basically set up the initial rounds to try and break them. It (seems to have) failed. It's known how Nao saw what Akiyama was trying to do that allowed them to save that bond. But it's also true that Akiyama knew (or probably knew) that Nao didn't team up with Kimura and Mikamoto.
Akiyama would know absolutely for a fact that Harimoto's group didn't team up with Nao for the simple reason that their bidding didn't reflect cooperation with Nao, even though it would have been more profitable for them to have.
If you look at the hands again (just numbers, not suits, we have):
Saeki has: 10, 10, 2, 4, 7, Q
Nao has: 2, 8, 10, 4, 5, 5
Mikamoto has: A, A, 7, Q, 9, K
Kimura has 6, K, 10, 3, J, J
If Nao, Mikamoto, and Kimura were actually working together, they could have easily locked Saeki into last place.
As happened, Mikamoto changes out her Q and 9, allowing Kimura a 9, 10, J, Q, K straight, and giving Kimura first place.
Kimura can change out the 6 and the 3, giving Nao a 2-3-4-5-6 straight, and giving Nao second place.
Nao gets rid of her 5 and 8, which makes sure that Mikamoto doesn't become a "pig", doesn't risk improving Saeki's hand and serves as collateral for Harimoto's, especially if they also agree on setting a high price on each hand.
More so, cooperating this way, assuming they synchronize bids, is more profitable for Kimura and Mikamoto than faking cooperation.
The actual rehearsal game ended with Kimura at +21 and Mikamoto at +23. Kimura's total is actually lower than Mikamoto's despite winning first place because she paid coins out to build her hand, but didn't didn't bring any coins back in by changing out her cards.
However, assuming that Nao, Kimura, and Mikamoto were working together, they could fix bidding at one price (say 15 coins, which would negate any chance of a Saeki sabotage) and all break even on their exchange.
1st place: Kimura
30 coins - Starting amount
-1 coin - Initial hand
-15 coins - Bid on Mikamoto's Q, 9
+15 coins - From Nao's bid on 3, 6
+10 coins - First place prize
-10 coins - Amount returned
Total profit: 29 coins
2nd place: Nao
30 coins - Starting amount
-1 coin - Initial hand
-15 coins - Bid on Kimura's 3, 6
+15 coins - From Mikamoto's bid on 5, 8
+4 coins - Second place prize
-10 coins - Amount returned
Total profit: 23 coins
3rd place: Mikamoto
30 coins - Starting amount
-1 coin - Initial hand
-15 coins - Bid on Nao's 5, 8
+15 coins - From Kimura's bid on Q, 9
+1 coin - Third place prize
-10 coins - Amount returned
Total profit: 20 coins
So, in other words, it would be clear to anyone thinking things through (i.e. Akiyama) that actually teaming up with Nao would have been MORE beneficial to Harimoto's group from a pure money standpoint than merely pretending to team up with Nao, and Kimura putting her king up instead of the 3 and 6.
And more tellingly, even if Kimura and Mikamoto wanted the advantage of having Nao in last place and merely asked her not to bid on the King, Nao would have probably pointed out to them that they'd all benefit more from the second scenario than the first. Because she's helpful like that.
/finishes being late to the party
/finishes doing math instead of working
So anyway, leaving that there, just so I can be smug about it.
